A devaluation means there is a fall in the value of a currency. The main effects are 贬值意味着一种货币的价值下降。其主要影响是:

• Exports are cheaper to foreign customers 对外国客户而言，出口更便宜
• Imports more expensive.进口商品更加昂贵
• In the short-term, a devaluation tends to cause inflation, higher growth and increased demand for exports. 在短期内，贬值往往会导致通货膨胀，经济增长加快，对出口的需求增加。

A devaluation in the Pound means £1 is worth less compared to other foreign currencies. For example 英镑贬值意味着1英镑与其他外国货币相比价值降低。举例来说

• Jan 2016. £1= $1.50
• July 2016 – £1=$1.28 )

Sterling exchange rate index, which shows the value of Sterling against a basket of currencies. 英镑汇率指数，显示英镑对一篮子货币的价值。

This shows the devaluations in the value of the Pound in 1992, 2009 and 2016. 这显示了1992年、2009年和2016年英镑价值的贬值情况。

Effects of a devaluation 贬值的影响

1. Exports cheaper 出口更便宜. A devaluation of the exchange rate will make exports more competitive and appear cheaper to foreigners. This will increase demand for exports. Also, after a devaluation, UK assets become more attractive; for example, a devaluation in the Pound can make UK property appear cheaper to foreigners. 汇率贬值将使出口更具竞争力，对外国人来说显得更便宜。这将增加对出口的需求。另外，在贬值后，英国的资产会变得更有吸引力；例如，英镑贬值会使英国的房产在外国人看来更便宜。

2. Imports more expensive 进口商品更昂贵. A devaluation means imports, such as petrol, food and raw materials will become more expensive. This will reduce the demand for imports. It may also encourage British tourists to take a holiday in the UK, rather than the US – which now appears more expensive. 贬值意味着进口，如汽油、食品和原材料将变得更加昂贵。这将减少对进口的需求。它也可能鼓励英国游客在英国度假，而不是在美国度假--美国现在看起来更贵。

3. Increased aggregate demand 增加总需求 (AD). A devaluation could cause higher economic growth. Part of AD is (X-M) therefore higher exports and lower imports should increase AD (assuming demand is relatively elastic). In normal circumstances, higher AD is likely to cause higher real GDP and inflation. 贬值可能导致更高的经济增长。AD的一部分是（X-M），因此更多的出口和更少的进口应该增加AD（假设需求是相对有弹性的）。在正常情况下，较高的AD可能会导致较高的实际GDP和通货膨胀。

4. Inflation is likely to occur following a devaluation because 贬值后可能会出现通货膨胀，因为:

• Imports are more expensive – causing cost push inflation. 进口商品更加昂贵--导致成本推动型通货膨胀
• AD is increasing causing demand pull inflation AD增加导致需求拉动型通货膨胀
• With exports becoming cheaper, manufacturers may have less incentive to cut costs and become more efficient. Therefore over time, costs may increase. 随着出口变得更便宜，制造商可能没有动力削减成本，变得更有效率。因此，随着时间的推移，成本可能会增加。

UK current account from 1987

5. Improvement in the current account 经常账户的改善. With exports more competitive and imports more expensive, we should see higher exports and lower imports, which will reduce the current account deficit. In 2016, the UK had a near record current account deficit, so a devaluation is necessary to reduce the size of the deficit. 随着出口更有竞争力，进口更昂贵，我们应该看到更高的出口和更低的进口，这将减少经常账户赤字。在2016年，英国的经常账户赤字接近创纪录，所以有必要进行贬值，以减少赤字的规模。

6. Wages 工资. A devaluation in the Pound makes the UK less attractive for foreign workers. For example, with fall in the value of the Pound, migrant workers from Eastern Europe may prefer to work in Germany than the UK. In the UK food manufacturing industry, more than 30% of workers are from the EU. UK firms may have to push up wages to keep foreign labour. Similarly, it becomes more attractive for British workers to get a job in the US because a dollar wage will go further. (FT – migrants become more picky about UK jobs)

英镑贬值使英国对外国工人的吸引力降低。例如，随着英镑的贬值，来自东欧的移民工人可能更愿意在德国工作，而不是英国。在英国的食品制造业中，超过30%的工人来自欧盟。英国公司可能不得不推高工资以留住外国劳工。同样，对英国工人来说，在美国找工作变得更有吸引力，因为一美元的工资会走得更远。(FT - 移民对英国工作变得更加挑剔)

7. Falling real wages 实际工资下降. In a period of stagnant wage growth, devaluation can cause a fall in real wages. This is because devaluation causes inflation, but if the inflation rate is higher than wage increases, then real wages will fall. 在工资增长停滞的时期，贬值会导致实际工资下降。这是因为贬值会导致通货膨胀，但如果通货膨胀率高于工资增长，那么实际工资将下降。

Evaluation of a devaluation 对贬值的评价

The effect of a devaluation depends on 贬值的效果取决于:

1. Elasticity of demand for exports and imports 对出口和进口的需求弹性. If demand is price inelastic, then a fall in the price of exports will lead to only a small rise in quantity. Therefore, the value of exports may actually fall. An improvement in the current account on the balance of payments depends upon the Marshall Lerner condition and the elasticity of demand for exports and imports

如果需求没有价格弹性，那么出口价格的下降将只导致数量的小幅上升。因此，出口的价值实际上可能会下降。国际收支经常项目的改善，取决于马歇尔-勒纳条件和进出口需求的弹性

• If PEDx + PEDm > 1 then a devaluation will improve the current account 如果PEDx+PEDm>1，那么贬值将改善经常项目
• The impact of a devaluation may take time to influence the economy. In the short term, demand may be inelastic, but over time demand may become more price elastic and have a bigger effect. 贬值的影响可能需要时间来影响经济。在短期内，需求可能没有弹性，但随着时间的推移，需求可能变得更有价格弹性，并产生更大的影响。

2. State of the global economy 全球经济的状况. If the global economy is in recession, then a devaluation may be insufficient to boost export demand. If growth is strong, then there will be a greater increase in demand. However, in a boom, a devaluation is likely to exacerbate inflation. 如果全球经济处于衰退状态，那么贬值可能不足以促进出口需求。如果增长强劲，那么需求会有更大的增加。然而，在经济繁荣时期，贬值可能会加剧通货膨胀。

3. Inflation 通货膨胀. The effect on inflation will depend on other factors such as 对通货膨胀的影响将取决于其他因素，如:

• Spare capacity in the economy. E.g. in a recession, a devaluation is unlikely to cause inflation. 经济中的剩余能力。例如，在经济衰退时，货币贬值不太可能引起通货膨胀。
• Do firms pass increased import costs onto consumers? Firms may reduce their profit margins, at least in the short run. 企业是否将增加的进口成本转嫁给消费者企业可能会降低其利润率，至少在短期内。
• Import prices are not the only determinant of inflation. Other factors affecting inflation such as wage increases may be important. 进口价格不是通货膨胀的唯一决定因素。影响通货膨胀的其他因素，如工资增长可能是重要的。

4. It depends on why the currency is being devalued.这取决于货币贬值的原因。 If it is due to a loss of competitiveness, then a devaluation can help to restore competitiveness and economic growth. If the devaluation is aiming to meet a certain exchange rate target, it may be inappropriate for the economy. 如果是由于竞争力的丧失，那么贬值可以帮助恢复竞争力和经济增长。如果贬值的目的是为了达到某种汇率目标，那么它可能对经济不合适。

Winners and losers from Devaluation 贬值的赢家和输家

Examples of devaluation 贬值的例子

• Leaving the ERM in 1992 1992年离开欧洲货币机制
• UK devaluation of 1967 1967年英国贬值
• Devaluation of Indian Rupee 印度卢比的贬值
• Why is Chinese currency undervalued? – the impact of weaker Chinese currency 为什么中国货币被低估了- 中国货币走弱的影响

Effect of devaluation of Pound – 2016 post Brexit 英镑贬值的影响--2016年英国脱欧后

The Pound fell against major currencies, especially the Dollar due to Brexit. The effects will be 由于英国脱欧，英镑兑主要货币，特别是美元下跌。其影响将是:

• Higher prices of imported goods. 进口商品的价格上涨。
• Inflation. However, UK inflation was low to start off with, and the global economy is facing a period of deflationary pressures. So in this scenario, the inflationary effects of a devaluation are less damaging than usual. 通货膨胀。然而，英国的通货膨胀率一开始就很低，而全球经济正面临着通货紧缩的压力期。因此，在这种情况下，贬值的通胀影响比通常情况下的破坏性要小。
• Inflation combined with low wage growth (e.g. public sector pay freeze of 1%) – has seen a fall in real incomes causing lower consumer spending. 通货膨胀加上低工资增长（如公共部门工资冻结1%）--已经看到实际收入下降，导致消费者支出减少。
• Exports should see a rise in demand because of the falling value of Sterling. However, the rise in exports may be muted by weak growth in the Eurozone and global economy. If global growth is low, we may see less growth in exports than we might usually expect. Demand may prove inelastic. 由于英镑的贬值，出口应该看到需求的上升。然而，出口的增长可能会被欧元区和全球经济的疲软增长所抑制。如果全球经济增长缓慢，我们看到的出口增长可能比我们通常预期的少。需求可能被证明是没有弹性的。
• The Pound is falling which boosts exports, but the low wage growth means the strongest effect is the decline in real wages which damages economic prospects. 英镑下跌促进了出口，但低工资增长意味着最强烈的影响是实际工资的下降，这损害了经济前景。