An appreciation means an increase in the value of a currency against other foreign currency.

升值意味着一种货币对其他外国货币的价值增加。

An appreciation makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper.

升值使出口更昂贵，进口更便宜。

An example of an appreciation in the value of the Pound 2009 – 2012 英镑升值的例子

• Jan 2009 If £1 = €1.1
• June 2012 £1 = €1.27
• In this case, we can say there was a 15% appreciation in the value of the Pound against the Euro – between Jan 2009 and June 2012.

在这种情况下，我们可以说在2009年1月至2012年6月期间，英镑对欧元升值了15%。

Effects of an appreciation on the UK economy 升值对英国经济的影响

Exports more expensive 出口更贵. The foreign price of UK exports will increase – so Europeans will find British exports more expensive. Therefore with a higher price, we would expect to see a fall in the quantity of UK exports. 英国出口产品的国外价格将上升--因此欧洲人将发现英国的出口产品更加昂贵。因此，随着价格的提高，我们预计会看到英国出口数量的下降。

Imports are cheaper 进口商品更便宜了. UK consumers will find that £1 now buys a greater quantity of European goods. Therefore, with cheaper imports, we would expect to see an increase in the number of imports. 英国消费者会发现，现在1英镑可以买到更多的欧洲商品。因此，随着进口商品价格的降低，我们将看到进口数量的增加。

Lower (X-M) 降低 (X-M) With lower export demand and greater spending on imports, we would expect fall in domestic aggregate demand (AD), causing lower economic growth. 随着出口需求的降低和进口支出的增加，我们将预期国内总需求（AD）的下降，导致经济增长的降低。

Lower inflation 较低的通货膨胀. An appreciation tends to cause lower inflation because:import prices are cheaper. The cost of imported goods and raw materials will fall after an appreciation, e.g. imported oil will decrease, leading to cheaper petrol prices.Lower AD leads to lower demand-pull inflation.With export prices more expensive, manufacturers have greater incentives to cut costs to try and remain competitive. 升值往往会导致通货膨胀率降低，因为：进口价格更便宜。升值后，进口商品和原材料的成本将下降，例如，进口石油将减少，导致汽油价格更便宜，较低的AD会导致较低的需求拉动型通货膨胀。

Monetary policy 货币政策. It is possible that an appreciation in the exchange rate may make the Central Bank more willing to cut interest rates.An appreciation reduces inflationary pressure so interest rates can be lower.Also higher interest rates would cause the currency to rise even more. If the Central Bank thought appreciation was too rapid, they may cut rates to reduce the value of the currency. 汇率升值有可能使中央银行更愿意降低利率。升值减少了通货膨胀的压力，因此利率可以降低。如果中央银行认为升值过快，他们可能会削减利率以降低货币的价值。

Impact of appreciation on AD/AS 升值对AD/AS的影响

Assuming demand is relatively elastic, an appreciation contributes to lower AD (or a slower growth of AD), leading to lower inflation and lower economic growth.

假设需求有相对的弹性，升值有助于降低AD（或减缓AD的增长），导致通货膨胀率降低和经济增长下降。

Impact of an appreciation on the current account 升值对经常项目的影响

Assuming demand is relatively elastic, we would expect an appreciation to worsen the current account position. Exports are more expensive, so we get a fall in eXports. Imports are cheaper and so we see an increase in iMports. This will cause a bigger deficit on the current account.

假设需求是相对有弹性的，我们会预期升值会使经常账户状况恶化。出口更贵了，所以我们会得到一个出口的下降。进口更便宜了，所以我们看到进口的增加。这将导致经常账户出现更大的赤字。

However, the impact on the current account is not certain 然而，对经常账户的影响并不确定:

1. An appreciation will tend to reduce inflation. This can make UK goods more competitive, leading to stronger exports in the long term, therefore, this could help improve the current account. 升值将倾向于减少通货膨胀。这可以使英国的商品更有竞争力，导致长期的出口增长，因此，这可能有助于改善经常账户。
2. The impact on the current account depends on the elasticity of demand. If demand for imports and exports is inelastic, then the current account could even improve. Exports are more expensive, but if demand is inelastic, there will only be a small fall in demand. The value of exports will increase. If demand for exports is price elastic, there will be a proportionately greater fall in export demand, and there will be a fall in the value of exports. 对经常账户的影响取决于需求的弹性。如果对进口和出口的需求没有弹性，那么经常账户甚至可以改善。出口更加昂贵，但如果需求没有弹性，需求只会有小幅下降。出口的价值会增加。如果出口需求是有价格弹性的，那么出口需求的下降比例就会更大，出口价值也会下降。
3. Often in the short term, demand is inelastic, but over time people become more price sensitive and demand more elastic. It also depends on what goods you export. Some goods with little competition will be inelastic. China’s manufacturing exports are more likely to be price sensitive because there is more competition. 通常在短期内，需求是没有弹性的，但随着时间的推移，人们变得对价格更加敏感，需求的弹性也更大。这也取决于你出口什么商品。一些竞争不激烈的商品将是无弹性的。中国的制造业出口更可能对价格敏感，因为有更多的竞争。

Evaluating the effects of an appreciation 评估升值的影响

• Elasticity 弹性. The impact of an appreciation depends upon the price elasticity of demand for exports and imports. The Marshall Lerner condition stations that an appreciation will worsen the current account if (PEDx + PEDm >1) 升值的影响取决于出口和进口需求的价格弹性。马歇尔-勒纳条件站，如果（PEDx + PEDm >1），升值将使经常账户恶化。
• Elasticity varies over time 弹性随时间而变化. In the short run, we often find demand for exports and imports is inelastic, so an appreciation improves current account. But, over time, demand becomes more elastic as people switch to alternatives. 在短期内，我们经常发现对出口和进口的需求是没有弹性的，所以升值会改善经常账户。但是，随着时间的推移，需求会变得更有弹性，因为人们会转而使用其他替代品。
• The impact of an appreciation depends on the situation of the economy 升值的影响取决于经济的状况. If the economy is in a recession, then an appreciation will cause a significant fall in aggregate demand, and will probably contribute to higher unemployment. However, if the economy is in a boom, then an appreciation will help reduce inflationary pressures and limit the growth rate without too much adverse impact. 如果经济处于衰退期，那么升值将导致总需求大幅下降，并可能导致失业率上升。然而，如果经济处于繁荣期，那么升值将有助于减少通胀压力，并限制增长率，而不会产生太大的负面影响。
• It also depends on economic growth in other countries 这也取决于其他国家的经济增长. If Europe was experiencing strong growth, they would be more likely to keep buying UK exports, even though they are more expensive. However, in 2012, the EU economy was in a recession and therefore was sensitive to the increased price of UK exports. 如果欧洲经济增长强劲，他们将更有可能继续购买英国的出口产品，即使它们更昂贵。然而，在2012年，欧盟经济正处于衰退期，因此对英国出口产品价格的提高很敏感。
• It also depends on why the exchange rate is increasing in value 这也取决于为什么汇率会升值. If there is an appreciation because the economy is becoming more competitive, then the appreciation will not be causing a loss of competitiveness. But, if there is an appreciation because of speculation or weakness in other countries, then the appreciation could cause a bigger loss of competitiveness. 如果升值是因为经济变得更有竞争力，那么升值就不会造成竞争力的丧失。但是，如果因为投机或其他国家的疲软而出现升值，那么升值可能会造成更大的竞争力损失。

Is an appreciation good or bad? 升值是好是坏

• An appreciation can help improve living standards – it enables consumers to buy cheaper imports. 升值可以帮助提高生活水平--它使消费者能够购买更便宜的进口商品。
• If the appreciation is a result of improved competitiveness, then the appreciation is sustainable, and it shouldn’t cause lower growth. 如果升值是提高竞争力的结果，那么升值是可持续的，它不应该导致增长下降。
• An appreciation could be a problem if the currency appreciates rapidly during difficult economic circumstances. 如果货币在经济困难时期迅速升值，升值就会成为一个问题。

For example, in 1979 and 1980, the UK had a sharp appreciation in the exchange rate, partly due to the discovery of North Sea oil. The value of the Pound increased from £1=$1.5 to £1 = $2.5. However, this appreciation was a factor in causing the recession of 1981 – which particularly affected UK exports and manufacturing.

例如，在1979年和1980年，英国的汇率急剧升值，部分原因是北海石油的发现。英镑的价值从1英镑=1.5美元增加到1英镑=2.5美元。然而，这种升值是造成1981年经济衰退的一个因素--它特别影响了英国的出口和制造业。